Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.8 – 60.46

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±16.3

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 18.78Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 51.21Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 29.81Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190 ±16.6

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 33.15Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 20.53Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 6.78Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3275, 3313, 1832

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3275, 3313, 1832

Auto

27.6 29%

Teleop

37.6 40%

Endgame

28.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9498, 31, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9498, 31, 1209

Auto

16.6 29%

Teleop

23.9 42%

Endgame

15.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.8pts

Blue projected score60.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.3
Score range: 29–131
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.2Season APEX190

27.6Auto16.6

37.6Teleop23.9

28.5Endgame15.8

0Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	9
teleop	58	20
endgame	11	22
foul	0	0
total	103	51

Result

Final score

103 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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