Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

406.7 – 66.92

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

610 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 105.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.5 ±11.7

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 71.62Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 264.5Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 70.58Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±16.2

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 22.09Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 16.11Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 28.72Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2373, 498, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.7 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2373, 498, 5454

Auto

72.0 18%

Teleop

237.9 61%

Endgame

82.1 21%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1819, 2352, 9472

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1819, 2352, 9472

Auto

13.7 20%

Teleop

28.4 42%

Endgame

26.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score406.7pts

Blue projected score66.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 339.8
Score range: 37–437
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 669 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.5Season APEX175.8

72Auto13.7

237.9Teleop28.4

82.1Endgame26.1

27Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	20
teleop	379	23
endgame	149	11
foul	0	5
total	610	59

Result

Final score

610 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 105.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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