Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.02 – 101.9

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.9 ±17

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 33.24Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 5.73Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 34.05Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±13.3

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 33.58Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 24.89Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 43.43Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9631, 8711, 2359

/ 100 compat

Projected

73 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9631, 8711, 2359

Auto

17.6 28%

Teleop

31.6 50%

Endgame

14.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2341, 3160, 4005

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 3160, 4005

Auto

21.2 23%

Teleop

39.1 42%

Endgame

33.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73pts

Blue projected score101.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.9
Score range: 43–132
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.9Season APEX215.5

17.6Auto21.2

31.6Teleop39.1

14.2Endgame33.4

34Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	39
teleop	35	100
endgame	9	26
foul	0	0
total	63	165

Result

Final score

63 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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