Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.75 – 239.02

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.1 ±13.9

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 37.42Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 70.65Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 50.68Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.2 ±10.4

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 38.63Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 111.98Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 88.41Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4523, 1561, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 1561, 6026

Auto

41.0 27%

Teleop

85.9 57%

Endgame

22.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2333, 2403, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

239 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2333, 2403, 10980

Auto

49.3 20%

Teleop

142.7 59%

Endgame

49.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.8pts

Blue projected score239pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.3
Score range: 129–269
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.1Season APEX536.2

41Auto49.3

85.9Teleop142.7

22.8Endgame49.9

20Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	43
teleop	52	98
endgame	22	37
foul	0	0
total	112	178

Result

Final score

112 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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