Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.71 – 255.67

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±15

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 5.5Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 22.27Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 71.94Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475 ±11

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 98.19Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 59.73Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 97.75Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2165, 3134, 3179

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2165, 3134, 3179

Auto

23.7 24%

Teleop

60.9 62%

Endgame

13.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2718, 10661, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 10661, 5653

Auto

37.1 15%

Teleop

136.1 55%

Endgame

74.2 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.7pts

Blue projected score255.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156
Score range: 70–286
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227Season APEX475

23.7Auto37.1

60.9Teleop136.1

13.2Endgame74.2

82Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	96	181
endgame	54	60
foul	0	0
total	170	266

Result

Final score

170 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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