Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

333.21 – 124.29

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

413 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477 ±12.8

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 248.92Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 33.47Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 50.82Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.8 ±12.9

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 9.88Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 88.94Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 25.47Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, 4005, 3313

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 498, 4005, 3313

Auto

69.0 21%

Teleop

198.7 61%

Endgame

59.6 18%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2773, 6424, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2773, 6424, 2341

Auto

20.5 18%

Teleop

72.2 65%

Endgame

19.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score333.2pts

Blue projected score124.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 208.9
Score range: 95–362
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477Season APEX261.8

69Auto20.5

198.7Teleop72.2

59.6Endgame19.2

69Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	28
teleop	262	119
endgame	66	55
foul	15	0
total	413	202

Result

Final score

413 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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