Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.24 – 226.91

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.6 ±13.5

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 74.28Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 109.07Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 30.89Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.5 ±11

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 94.62Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 11.23Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 121.06Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3179, 5550, 2773

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 5550, 2773

Auto

29.5 14%

Teleop

130.4 62%

Endgame

49.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6424, 1209, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6424, 1209, 2403

Auto

44.0 20%

Teleop

142.1 63%

Endgame

39.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.2pts

Blue projected score226.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.7
Score range: 181–260
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.6Season APEX340.5

29.5Auto44

130.4Teleop142.1

49.4Endgame39.3

108Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	32
teleop	89	129
endgame	21	35
foul	0	5
total	125	201

Result

Final score

125 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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