Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.2 – 79.67

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.6 ±19.2

10626Smokin Batteries

Provisional

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 3.02Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 45.64Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 26.54Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214 ±15

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 16Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 41.4Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 22.27Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10626, 9498, 3275

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10626, 9498, 3275

Auto

16.7 22%

Teleop

35.4 47%

Endgame

22.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2352, 4523, 3134

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2352, 4523, 3134

Auto

23.7 30%

Teleop

36.6 46%

Endgame

18.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.2pts

Blue projected score79.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.5
Score range: 45–110
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 165.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.6Season APEX214

16.7Auto23.7

35.4Teleop36.6

22.7Endgame18.7

36Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	25
teleop	11	45
endgame	7	21
foul	0	0
total	40	91

Result

Final score

40 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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