Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.03 – 121.46

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.9 ±13.5

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -0.45Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 87.31Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 58.17Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.5 ±16.6

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX -1.62Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 84.94Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 38.14Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8711, 10980, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

145 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8711, 10980, 1561

Auto

52.0 34%

Teleop

95.6 63%

Endgame

5.0 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2165, 5653, 9462

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2165, 5653, 9462

Auto

22.3 19%

Teleop

67.9 57%

Endgame

29.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145pts

Blue projected score121.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.6
Score range: 91–175
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.9Season APEX354.5

52Auto22.3

95.6Teleop67.9

5Endgame29.1

73Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	39
teleop	135	124
endgame	33	50
foul	0	0
total	230	213

Result

Final score

230 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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