Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.22 – 171.95

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.1 ±13.1

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 80.6Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 22.11Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 74.51Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.4 ±13.9

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 73.16Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 35.99Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 62.8Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3277, 1819, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3277, 1819, 5454

Auto

28.7 17%

Teleop

92.9 54%

Endgame

49.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3179, 3465, 2345

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 3465, 2345

Auto

21.6 13%

Teleop

90.3 55%

Endgame

52.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.2pts

Blue projected score172pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.3
Score range: 143–206
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 163.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.1Season APEX280.4

28.7Auto21.6

92.9Teleop90.3

49.1Endgame52.4

55Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	32
teleop	118	108
endgame	70	50
foul	0	0
total	229	190

Result

Final score

229 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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