Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.22 – 202.57

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.2 ±13.5

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 99.11Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 47.02Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 37.09Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.4 ±15.4

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 94.38Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 44.84Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 63.35Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5550, 6026, 3278

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5550, 6026, 3278

Auto

19.7 11%

Teleop

122.2 70%

Endgame

32.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6353, 1832, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6353, 1832, 10661

Auto

26.9 14%

Teleop

101.0 52%

Endgame

68.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.2pts

Blue projected score202.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.3
Score range: 154–232
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 163.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.2Season APEX308.4

19.7Auto26.9

122.2Teleop101

32.6Endgame68

31Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	10
teleop	90	106
endgame	57	70
foul	20	0
total	202	186

Result

Final score

202 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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