Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.98 – 79.26

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±14.7

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 25.36Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 45.85Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 95.77Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.5 ±16.5

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 42.76Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 13.42Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 23.08Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9244, 2333, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

167 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9244, 2333, 2718

Auto

30.5 18%

Teleop

93.1 55%

Endgame

44.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2359, 3163, 3160

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2359, 3163, 3160

Auto

21.8 32%

Teleop

22.5 33%

Endgame

23.5 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167pts

Blue projected score79.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.7
Score range: 50–196
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 163.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.8Season APEX220.5

30.5Auto21.8

93.1Teleop22.5

44.6Endgame23.5

38Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	23
teleop	111	24
endgame	46	21
foul	0	5
total	202	73

Result

Final score

202 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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