Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.04 – 98.21

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309 ±13.5

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 100.45Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 60.86Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 2.73Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210 ±18.8

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 37.39Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 38.48Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 22.34Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6424, 2373, 8711

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6424, 2373, 8711

Auto

27.3 17%

Teleop

96.0 61%

Endgame

34.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4523, 9498, 9631

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 9498, 9631

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

42.3 44%

Endgame

34.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164pts

Blue projected score98.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.8
Score range: 69–193
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309Season APEX210

27.3Auto19.3

96Teleop42.3

34.9Endgame34.5

120Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	19
teleop	84	71
endgame	23	41
foul	0	0
total	133	131

Result

Final score

133 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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