Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.76 – 147.88

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 119.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208 ±14.5

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 15.47Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 8.96Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 15.33Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±15.6

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 61.66Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 27.32Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 58.9Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2341, 3134, 31

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 3134, 31

Auto

12.4 45%

Teleop

5.3 19%

Endgame

9.9 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 9462, 3179

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 9462, 3179

Auto

24.4 19%

Teleop

81.3 63%

Endgame

24.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39.8pts

Blue projected score147.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.1
Score range: 11–177
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 161.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208Season APEX366.4

12.4Auto24.4

5.3Teleop81.3

9.9Endgame24

44Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	38
teleop	78	166
endgame	39	58
foul	20	0
total	164	262

Result

Final score

164 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 119.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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