Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.63 – 101.92

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.4 ±16.5

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 63.51Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10626Smokin Batteries

Provisional

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 5.05Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 55.07Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±13.9

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 9.36Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 26.3Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 66.26Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2345, 10626, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2345, 10626, 6026

Auto

11.2 9%

Teleop

80.8 65%

Endgame

32.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1209, 9472, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 9472, 1561

Auto

41.0 36%

Teleop

70.4 62%

Endgame

2.6 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score123.6pts

Blue projected score101.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.7
Score range: 73–153
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.4Season APEX245.1

11.2Auto41

80.8Teleop70.4

32.3Endgame2.6

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	25
teleop	44	58
endgame	29	31
foul	35	0
total	129	114

Result

Final score

129 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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