Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.36 – 142.62

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.8 ±17

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 98.1Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 29.22Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 29.04Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.3 ±11.7

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 75.99Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX -0.51Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 67.14Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6353, 3160, 9244

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6353, 3160, 9244

Auto

20.6 13%

Teleop

75.3 49%

Endgame

58.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10980, 1775, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10980, 1775, 10661

Auto

28.2 22%

Teleop

72.5 56%

Endgame

28.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.4pts

Blue projected score142.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 114–185
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.8Season APEX375.3

20.6Auto28.2

75.3Teleop72.5

58.2Endgame28.4

23Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	31
teleop	72	97
endgame	33	40
foul	0	0
total	139	168

Result

Final score

139 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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