Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.2 – 321.87

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 95 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.6 ±17.3

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 39.38Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 79.62Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 9.2Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.2 ±15.1

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 71.54Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9007MIT (Muskogee's Innovative Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 16.16Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 234.17Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1832, 3277, 3163

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1832, 3277, 3163

Auto

35.2 26%

Teleop

62.7 46%

Endgame

37.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5653, 9007, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.9 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5653, 9007, 498

Auto

55.6 18%

Teleop

190.2 61%

Endgame

67.8 22%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.2pts

Blue projected score321.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -193.7
Score range: 99–351
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.6Season APEX559.2

35.2Auto55.6

62.7Teleop190.2

37.6Endgame67.8

66Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	85
teleop	67	253
endgame	72	103
foul	5	30
total	169	471

Result

Final score

169 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 95 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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