Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.11 – 226.32

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.5 ±13.5

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 24.9Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 32.66Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 42.55Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.3 ±13.1

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 100.58Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 26Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 99.74Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3278, 4005, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3278, 4005, 2333

Auto

20.9 20%

Teleop

59.9 57%

Endgame

24.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5550, 1819, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5550, 1819, 2718

Auto

22.9 11%

Teleop

132.7 62%

Endgame

59.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score226.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.2
Score range: 72–254
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 157.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.5Season APEX416.3

20.9Auto22.9

59.9Teleop132.7

24.5Endgame59.5

77Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	30
teleop	88	141
endgame	34	66
foul	0	0
total	149	237

Result

Final score

149 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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