Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.83 – 126.93

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.6 ±16.5

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 24.89Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 54.14Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 51.8Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.4 ±18.8

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 70.57Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 30.34Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 26.02Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9498, 3179, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9498, 3179, 6026

Auto

20.5 17%

Teleop

82.0 67%

Endgame

19.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2373, 9631, 9462

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2373, 9631, 9462

Auto

12.6 11%

Teleop

69.9 59%

Endgame

36.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.8pts

Blue projected score126.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.9
Score range: 99–159
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 157.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.6Season APEX308.4

20.5Auto12.6

82Teleop69.9

19.3Endgame36.8

65Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	23
teleop	127	34
endgame	37	56
foul	0	0
total	190	113

Result

Final score

190 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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