Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.17 – 184.59

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.9 ±13.5

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 33.43Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 101.7Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 29.04Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.7 ±13.5

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 49.94Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 49.41Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 85.24Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3160, 6424, 3275

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 6424, 3275

Auto

25.9 17%

Teleop

80.6 53%

Endgame

46.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1561, 5454, 6353

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1561, 5454, 6353

Auto

37.2 21%

Teleop

97.7 55%

Endgame

42.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score184.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 136–213
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 156.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.9Season APEX441.7

25.9Auto37.2

80.6Teleop97.7

46Endgame42.5

25Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	63
teleop	72	183
endgame	31	51
foul	15	0
total	152	297

Result

Final score

152 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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