Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.56 – 218.15

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 122.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.8 ±12.2

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 63.25Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 56.73Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 88.58Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.3 ±18

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 211.99Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 17.09Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10626Smokin Batteries

Provisional

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -10.93Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5653, 2345, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5653, 2345, 2403

Auto

27.5 13%

Teleop

142.2 66%

Endgame

46.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 498, 9244, 10626

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 498, 9244, 10626

Auto

55.1 26%

Teleop

132.9 62%

Endgame

24.8 12%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.6pts

Blue projected score218.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.6
Score range: 182–245
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 672 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.8Season APEX466.3

27.5Auto55.1

142.2Teleop132.9

46.8Endgame24.8

119Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	58
teleop	164	204
endgame	101	98
foul	0	5
total	307	365

Result

Final score

307 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 122.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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