Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.89 – 34.49

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 72.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±12.8

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 65.89Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 53.74Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 47.26Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.4 ±16.2

9007MIT (Muskogee's Innovative Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 0.27Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 48.85Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX -14.63Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10661, 2359, 4523

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 2359, 4523

Auto

21.3 14%

Teleop

69.8 47%

Endgame

56.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9007, 3277, 2773

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9007, 3277, 2773

Auto

11.5 26%

Teleop

9.2 21%

Endgame

23.6 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.9pts

Blue projected score34.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.4
Score range: 7–194
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.1Season APEX305.4

21.3Auto11.5

69.8Teleop9.2

56Endgame23.6

71Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	29
teleop	80	98
endgame	47	52
foul	15	0
total	168	179

Result

Final score

168 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 72.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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