Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.65 – 79.02

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.8 ±11.7

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 26.95Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 191.12Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 91.58Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.5 ±16.3

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 19.64Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 51.72Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 7.66Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3465, 4403, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.7 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 4403, 2718

Auto

56.6 20%

Teleop

161.7 56%

Endgame

71.6 25%

Strengths

· 4403 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8711, 1832, 1775

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8711, 1832, 1775

Auto

26.6 39%

Teleop

21.6 32%

Endgame

20.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score309.7pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.6
Score range: 52–337
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.8Season APEX202.5

56.6Auto26.6

161.7Teleop21.6

71.6Endgame20.3

77Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	11
teleop	232	12
endgame	110	4
foul	0	0
total	397	27

Result

Final score

397 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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