Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.76 – 60.29

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.1 ±13.5

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 68.82Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 6.36Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 18.58Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.2 ±12.9

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 19.72Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 40.58Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -0.01Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10980, 2352, 4005

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10980, 2352, 4005

Auto

34.8 34%

Teleop

45.0 45%

Endgame

21.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1209, 2333, 3134

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 2333, 3134

Auto

26.0 46%

Teleop

23.9 42%

Endgame

6.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.8pts

Blue projected score60.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.5
Score range: 33–121
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 150.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.1Season APEX274.2

34.8Auto26

45Teleop23.9

21.3Endgame6.9

39Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	17
teleop	100	80
endgame	51	19
foul	0	0
total	203	116

Result

Final score

203 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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