Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.46 – 77.89

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.3 ±16.2

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 55.17Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 26.47Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 120.82Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±15.7

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 59.44Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX -0.85Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 19.3Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9472, 3163, 5550

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9472, 3163, 5550

Auto

18.8 9%

Teleop

143.7 72%

Endgame

38.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3313, 2165, 1819

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 2165, 1819

Auto

28.4 34%

Teleop

48.0 57%

Endgame

8.1 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.5pts

Blue projected score77.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.6
Score range: 51–229
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 150.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.3Season APEX206.9

18.8Auto28.4

143.7Teleop48

38Endgame8.1

29Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	11
teleop	63	34
endgame	42	31
foul	0	15
total	136	91

Result

Final score

136 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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