Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.01 – 131.35

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.7 ±15

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 21.65Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 19.52Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 19.84Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.8 ±12.9

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 88.85Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 30.65Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 11.85Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3160, 3278, 31

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 3278, 31

Auto

18.8 40%

Teleop

6.8 14%

Endgame

21.7 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, 2341, 10377

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2403, 2341, 10377

Auto

17.7 14%

Teleop

87.4 68%

Endgame

23.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.3
Score range: 34–158
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.7Season APEX317.8

18.8Auto17.7

6.8Teleop87.4

21.7Endgame23.3

13Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	26
teleop	34	100
endgame	48	23
foul	5	0
total	108	149

Result

Final score

108 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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