Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.61 – 18.31

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.7 ±16

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 81.75Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 72.73Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 9.13Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.7 ±15

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX -30.2Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 34.54Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 13.97Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2373, 5653, 9244

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2373, 5653, 9244

Auto

38.3 22%

Teleop

80.6 47%

Endgame

52.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2773, 4523, 3275

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2773, 4523, 3275

Auto

13.2 63%

Teleop

8.3 40%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.6pts

Blue projected score18.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.3
Score range: -9–191
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 152.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.7Season APEX258.7

38.3Auto13.2

80.6Teleop8.3

52.4Endgame-0.5

106Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	103	31
endgame	49	45
foul	0	0
total	169	92

Result

Final score

169 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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