Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.42 – 123.81

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.8 ±15.6

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 86.43Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9007MIT (Muskogee's Innovative Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX -6.81Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 84.8Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.5 ±15.6

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 53.41Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 40Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 30.4Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2718, 9007, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 9007, 6026

Auto

31.6 21%

Teleop

87.6 58%

Endgame

31.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2345, 5454, 9498

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2345, 5454, 9498

Auto

25.5 23%

Teleop

52.8 47%

Endgame

35.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.4pts

Blue projected score123.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.6
Score range: 97–191
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 151.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.8Season APEX348.5

31.6Auto25.5

87.6Teleop52.8

31.1Endgame35

61Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	109	103
endgame	49	43
foul	0	5
total	173	168

Result

Final score

173 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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