Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.28 – 132.87

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.6 ±13.5

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 18.74Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 23.98Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 114.56Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.9 ±14.1

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 63.42Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 2Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 67.45Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 31, 4005, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 31, 4005, 6424

Auto

25.0 19%

Teleop

64.1 48%

Endgame

43.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9472, 2165, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9472, 2165, 10661

Auto

22.2 17%

Teleop

78.4 60%

Endgame

29.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score132.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 106–184
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 148.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.6Season APEX246.9

25Auto22.2

64.1Teleop78.4

43.5Endgame29.5

27Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	25
teleop	91	63
endgame	45	36
foul	0	0
total	162	124

Result

Final score

162 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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