Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.47 – 105.47

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.8 ±15.7

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 30.84Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 22.7Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 21.93Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±15.1

10626Smokin Batteries

Provisional

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -20.97Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 87.04Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 39.4Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3465, 3275, 1819

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 3275, 1819

Auto

7.6 9%

Teleop

53.7 64%

Endgame

23.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10626, 2718, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10626, 2718, 2341

Auto

14.0 14%

Teleop

51.7 54%

Endgame

30.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.5pts

Blue projected score105.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30
Score range: 47–133
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.8Season APEX325.1

7.6Auto14

53.7Teleop51.7

23Endgame30.9

79Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	15	75
endgame	18	13
foul	0	0
total	52	109

Result

Final score

52 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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