Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.13 – 98.02

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.3 ±12.2

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 81.07Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 14.91Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 104.15Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±15

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 20.07Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 58.44Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 19.51Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10980, 2359, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10980, 2359, 5653

Auto

45.5 23%

Teleop

102.7 52%

Endgame

50.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 31, 2345, 10377

/ 100 compat

Projected

98 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 31, 2345, 10377

Auto

12.4 14%

Teleop

41.9 47%

Endgame

34.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.1pts

Blue projected score98pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.1
Score range: 65–233
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.3Season APEX247.5

45.5Auto12.4

102.7Teleop41.9

50.1Endgame34.3

47Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	10
teleop	106	64
endgame	33	35
foul	5	0
total	174	109

Result

Final score

174 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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