Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.87 – 220.79

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 103.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.6 ±13.9

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 23.1Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 31.04Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 51.73Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±12.8

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 51.73Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 173.88Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -4.82Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2352, 3179, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2352, 3179, 5653

Auto

31.4 33%

Teleop

30.4 32%

Endgame

34.7 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6026, 4403, 3160

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6026, 4403, 3160

Auto

40.0 18%

Teleop

129.9 59%

Endgame

50.7 23%

Strengths

· 4403 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score220.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.9
Score range: 80–247
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.6Season APEX438

31.4Auto40

30.4Teleop129.9

34.7Endgame50.7

74Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	58
teleop	86	181
endgame	42	77
foul	5	45
total	172	361

Result

Final score

172 – 361

Prediction correct · off by 103.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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