Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.56 – 292.12

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.1 ±18.8

9007MIT (Muskogee's Innovative Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 19.99Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 27.64Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 48.93Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.2 ±12.4

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 184.57Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX -0.97Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 108.52Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9007, 1775, 9631

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9007, 1775, 9631

Auto

18.4 21%

Teleop

36.9 43%

Endgame

30.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 498, 31, 5550

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 498, 31, 5550

Auto

61.7 21%

Teleop

198.0 67%

Endgame

35.1 12%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score292.1pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.6
Score range: 71–318
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.1Season APEX577.2

18.4Auto61.7

36.9Teleop198

30.4Endgame35.1

54Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	60
teleop	15	204
endgame	4	69
foul	15	60
total	50	393

Result

Final score

50 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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