Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.18 – 163.97

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.9 ±16.2

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 20.82Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 46.23Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 46.13Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.6 ±16.2

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 31.85Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 19.15Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 112.97Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3277, 9472, 9462

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3277, 9472, 9462

Auto

27.7 24%

Teleop

69.1 60%

Endgame

19.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9244, 3278, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9244, 3278, 6424

Auto

27.7 18%

Teleop

93.7 60%

Endgame

33.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.2pts

Blue projected score164pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.8
Score range: 88–189
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.9Season APEX270.6

27.7Auto27.7

69.1Teleop93.7

19.1Endgame33.8

28Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	37
teleop	104	102
endgame	46	35
foul	0	0
total	159	174

Result

Final score

159 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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