Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.39 – 18.79

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.6 ±13.5

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 52.31Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 80.17Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 53.91Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.9 ±15

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 54.13Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX -22.11Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -13.23Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2333, 6353, 2345

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.4 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2333, 6353, 2345

Auto

12.9 7%

Teleop

113.1 60%

Endgame

63.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3313, 2773, 8711

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 2773, 8711

Auto

14.3 85%

Teleop

8.6 51%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.4pts

Blue projected score18.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.6
Score range: -6–211
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 141.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.6Season APEX241.9

12.9Auto14.3

113.1Teleop8.6

63.7Endgame-6

78Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	32
teleop	117	55
endgame	56	16
foul	15	0
total	206	103

Result

Final score

206 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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