Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.29 – 63.8

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.7 ±18

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 36.36Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 44.99Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 42.94Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±14.5

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 64.32Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX -6.1Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 5.58Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10377, 1819, 9498

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10377, 1819, 9498

Auto

17.3 14%

Teleop

71.5 58%

Endgame

34.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4523, 2165, 4005

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 2165, 4005

Auto

20.0 28%

Teleop

29.7 41%

Endgame

22.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.3pts

Blue projected score63.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.5
Score range: 38–150
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.7Season APEX238.2

17.3Auto20

71.5Teleop29.7

34.8Endgame22.8

134Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	22
teleop	37	18
endgame	18	15
foul	0	0
total	65	55

Result

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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