Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.32 – 74.25

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 70.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.6 ±11

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 19.37Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 73.88Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 34.07Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±15.1

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 14.1Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -8.14Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 68.29Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2341, 10661, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 10661, 5454

Auto

21.6 17%

Teleop

73.3 58%

Endgame

32.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1209, 3163, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 3163, 10980

Auto

34.8 47%

Teleop

44.8 61%

Endgame

-6.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.3pts

Blue projected score74.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.1
Score range: 48–153
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.6Season APEX343.8

21.6Auto34.8

73.3Teleop44.8

32.2Endgame-6.1

139Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	39
teleop	59	95
endgame	49	28
foul	45	0
total	180	162

Result

Final score

180 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 70.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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