Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.43 – 82.82

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 95.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365 ±13.5

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 29.5Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 112.46Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 40.47Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±12.8

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 55.7Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 10.55Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 16.57Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3275, 5550, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3275, 5550, 1561

Auto

38.7 22%

Teleop

99.9 58%

Endgame

35.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2718, 2359, 3179

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 2359, 3179

Auto

19.4 26%

Teleop

49.3 66%

Endgame

5.9 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.4pts

Blue projected score82.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.6
Score range: 58–207
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365Season APEX360.2

38.7Auto19.4

99.9Teleop49.3

35Endgame5.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	33
teleop	149	99
endgame	29	69
foul	0	30
total	226	231

Result

Final score

226 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 95.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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