Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.73 – 98.09

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.6 ±16.2

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 24.15Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -48.31Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 87.89Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.3 ±17

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 57.96Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 4.52Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9007MIT (Muskogee's Innovative Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 35.61Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9462, 3134, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9462, 3134, 6424

Auto

7.8 13%

Teleop

46.6 78%

Endgame

5.5 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9472, 3160, 9007

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9472, 3160, 9007

Auto

15.6 16%

Teleop

47.0 48%

Endgame

35.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.7pts

Blue projected score98.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 39–123
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.6Season APEX201.3

7.8Auto15.6

46.6Teleop47

5.5Endgame35.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	114	16
endgame	24	29
foul	15	0
total	178	55

Result

Final score

178 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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