Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.09 – 60.82

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.4 ±15

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX -8.97Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 60.68Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX -28.62Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±17.5

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 51.38Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10626Smokin Batteries

Provisional

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 20.14Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -10.7Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 31, 6026, 2773

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 31, 6026, 2773

Auto

25.4 100%

Teleop

7.1 31%

Endgame

-9.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3278, 10626, 8711

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3278, 10626, 8711

Auto

13.5 21%

Teleop

50.4 79%

Endgame

0.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.1pts

Blue projected score60.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.7
Score range: -3–87
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.4Season APEX211

25.4Auto13.5

7.1Teleop50.4

-9.4Endgame0.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	45	25
endgame	22	5
foul	0	0
total	78	43

Result

Final score

78 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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