Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.78 – 97.45

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 104.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.3 ±17

6353EFZ Robotics

Season APEX 138.7Event APEX 44.94Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 6.8Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 4.04Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.6 ±13.6

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 30.68Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 49.49Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 17.28Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6353, 9498, 1775

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6353, 9498, 1775

Auto

16.1 35%

Teleop

10.7 23%

Endgame

19.4 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1819, 5653, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1819, 5653, 2333

Auto

19.3 19%

Teleop

63.8 63%

Endgame

18.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score97.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.7
Score range: 30–123
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.3Season APEX372.6

16.1Auto19.3

10.7Teleop63.8

19.4Endgame18.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	100	96
endgame	63	58
foul	0	5
total	179	184

Result

Final score

179 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 104.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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