Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.94 – 120.57

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.6 ±14.7

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 27.4Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 33.54Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 101Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.8 ±14.1

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 87.88Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 13.81Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 18.88Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9631, 2333, 3277

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9631, 2333, 3277

Auto

27.6 18%

Teleop

81.7 53%

Endgame

46.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 3275, 2165

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 3275, 2165

Auto

28.5 24%

Teleop

61.4 53%

Endgame

26.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.9pts

Blue projected score120.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.4
Score range: 88–195
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.6Season APEX355.8

27.6Auto28.5

81.7Teleop61.4

46.1Endgame26.5

64Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	18
teleop	68	45
endgame	37	18
foul	5	0
total	143	81

Result

Final score

143 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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