Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.56 – 74.15

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±12.8

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX -5.88Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 37.37Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 72.07Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±13.5

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 26.98Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 54Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -6.83Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4005, 2345, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4005, 2345, 10661

Auto

18.6 17%

Teleop

62.5 57%

Endgame

29.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3465, 2403, 2352

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 2403, 2352

Auto

15.2 20%

Teleop

50.5 65%

Endgame

11.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.6pts

Blue projected score74.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.4
Score range: 49–129
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.9Season APEX335

18.6Auto15.2

62.5Teleop50.5

29.5Endgame11.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	47
teleop	104	81
endgame	62	49
foul	0	0
total	185	177

Result

Final score

185 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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