Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.6 – 132.36

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.5 ±16.3

1832Duck Tape

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 3.08Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 41.81Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 43.71Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.1 ±18

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 18.88Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 35.63Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 77.85Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1832, 4523, 10377

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1832, 4523, 10377

Auto

16.5 19%

Teleop

47.6 54%

Endgame

24.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3163, 5454, 9631

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3163, 5454, 9631

Auto

31.6 25%

Teleop

70.0 54%

Endgame

26.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score132.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.8
Score range: 63–158
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.5Season APEX332.1

16.5Auto31.6

47.6Teleop70

24.7Endgame26.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	26
teleop	53	25
endgame	31	19
foul	15	15
total	118	85

Result

Final score

118 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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