Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.24 – 125.02

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 91.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.4 ±12.9

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 13.65Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 35.57Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 187.02Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±15.1

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX -5.27Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 7.49Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 122.8Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2165, 1209, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2165, 1209, 498

Auto

55.5 23%

Teleop

159.6 66%

Endgame

25.6 11%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2341, 9244, 4403

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 9244, 4403

Auto

21.2 18%

Teleop

60.9 52%

Endgame

35.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score236.2pts

Blue projected score125pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.2
Score range: 100–261
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 136.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.4Season APEX401.9

55.5Auto21.2

159.6Teleop60.9

25.6Endgame35.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	54
teleop	128	149
endgame	16	60
foul	0	15
total	206	278

Result

Final score

206 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 91.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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