Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.27 – 90.22

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 256

Prediction missed · off by 117.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±12.8

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 47.91Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 101.65Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 49.71Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.2 ±11.7

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 51.01Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 41.45Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX -2.24Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3160, 10980, 2373

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 10980, 2373

Auto

32.1 16%

Teleop

125.1 62%

Endgame

44.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5550, 3313, 3277

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5550, 3313, 3277

Auto

27.6 30%

Teleop

49.2 53%

Endgame

15.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score199.3pts

Blue projected score90.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.1
Score range: 66–223
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.3Season APEX433.2

32.1Auto27.6

125.1Teleop49.2

44.2Endgame15.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	46
teleop	60	158
endgame	49	52
foul	0	0
total	130	256

Result

Final score

130 – 256

Prediction missed · off by 117.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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