Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.88 – 74.84

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.5 ±17.5

9498ZENSHIN Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 32.13Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 35.71Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 93.04Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±14.5

3275The Regulators

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 22.21Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 16.92Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 35.71Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9498, 2773, 9472

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9498, 2773, 9472

Auto

19.7 12%

Teleop

102.6 63%

Endgame

39.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3275, 1775, 3179

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3275, 1775, 3179

Auto

6.3 8%

Teleop

50.8 67%

Endgame

18.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.9pts

Blue projected score74.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86
Score range: 50–186
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.5Season APEX224.7

19.7Auto6.3

102.6Teleop50.8

39.5Endgame18.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	14	18
endgame	8	14
foul	0	30
total	40	77

Result

Final score

40 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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