Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.02 – 53.94

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±12.4

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -13.67Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 38Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 36.69Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.2 ±18

9462Toefur's Titans

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 27.92Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 6.83Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1819The Quacken

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 19.19Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3134, 10661, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3134, 10661, 2403

Auto

5.1 8%

Teleop

34.5 55%

Endgame

23.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9462, 8711, 1819

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9462, 8711, 1819

Auto

20.8 38%

Teleop

27.8 51%

Endgame

5.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score53.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.1
Score range: 29–86
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 141.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.4Season APEX183.2

5.1Auto20.8

34.5Teleop27.8

23.5Endgame5.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	12
teleop	72	55
endgame	13	6
foul	0	0
total	113	73

Result

Final score

113 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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