Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.73 – 166.02

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 146.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.1 ±14.7

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 60Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 57.63Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9631Chargers

Provisional

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 52.1Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.5 ±15.6

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 53.92Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3163ROARBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 60Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 52.1Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4403, 6424, 9631

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4403, 6424, 9631

Auto

28.5 17%

Teleop

103.7 63%

Endgame

32.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3465, 3163, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

166 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 3163, 2333

Auto

21.6 13%

Teleop

107.0 65%

Endgame

36.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.7pts

Blue projected score166pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 140–196
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.1Season APEX300.5

28.5Auto21.6

103.7Teleop107

32.9Endgame36.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	21
teleop	196	32
endgame	75	13
foul	35	0
total	363	66

Result

Final score

363 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 146.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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