Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.03 – 144.02

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.3 ±11.6

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 24.05Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 57.43Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 28.55Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±14.5

3278Electric Lakers

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 62.05Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 28.55Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 53.42Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5454, 1209, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

110 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 1209, 5653

Auto

14.8 14%

Teleop

66.6 62%

Endgame

25.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3278, 2359, 2373

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3278, 2359, 2373

Auto

12.6 9%

Teleop

85.3 59%

Endgame

46.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110pts

Blue projected score144pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34
Score range: 84–170
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.3Season APEX323.8

14.8Auto12.6

66.6Teleop85.3

25.8Endgame46.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	20
teleop	52	75
endgame	20	22
foul	0	0
total	112	117

Result

Final score

112 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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